Iran vs. Israel: Besides A-bomb Fear, Could Israel's Huge Gas Find Trigger Hostility?
A large pocket of offshore natural gas could shift Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics on its head. As the threat of war looms between Israel and Iran, the newly found gas could add extra friction between the two countries.
Last year, Houston-based Noble Energy discovered vast tracts of natural gas off the coast of Israel and Cyprus. It had been exploring for 13 years.
So far, the find has been a bonanza, especially for energy poor Israel. Noble has found 35 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas. By September, this offshore find could yield as much as 100 million cubic feet of gas a day. …
… In the end, it all comes back to this: good neighbors promote good business.
Israel could be just the alternative needed for other regional exporters to become more agreeable to Western powers, said William Martel, associate professor of International Security Studies at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
Western powers could be more enticed to purchase natural gas and oil from a democratic Israel, Martel said, potentially being the catalyst needed for certain regimes in the region to change their tone, or lose business.
"I can only imagine that the competitive pressures will be exacerbated in the region," Martel said.
An energy exporting Israel could actually have a stabilizing effect on the region. That's because customers would buy from a democratic supplier rather than an aggressive or totalitarian regime, the Tufts expert said.
Of course, all bets are off should there be war between Israel and Iran, Martel said.
"If this nuclear issue gets resolved," said Martel, "[The natural gas in years to come] will increase Israel's regional geo-political footprint."
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